Science Nutshell: Climate Change Will Make Lightning Strikes 50% More Frequent

As global warming continues, the frequency of lightning strikes over the United States will increase at a rate of 12±5% per degree Celsius.


This is the result of research conducted at the University of Berkeley, California by a team consisting of David M. Romps, Jacob T. Seeley, David Vollaro, and John Molinari.

Lightning is more likely when the temperature is higher as there is more energy to make air rise. The team set out to quantify this relationship, combining a rising atmospheric temperature with known precipitation rates to model how frequent lightning strikes would be in the future. What they found was that the relationship was significant such that, at current predicted rates of warming, the frequency would increase by 50% by the end of the century.

This is a worrying prediction. Although visually stunning, lightning strikes are not only are dangerous on their own but can cause wildfires which in turn are hazardous to crops, property, wildlife, and ultimately human life.